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At the Wisconsin Challenge
With the 2024 U.S. presidential election on the horizon, the political climate is heating up, and the leading candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, are adopting a distinctly different strategy to win the country's favor and reach the fateful 270 Great Voters.
Harris and his team aim to build a narrative of continuity and change, seeking to solidify support among young people and minorities through a well-oiled voter machine. Trump is appealing to his historic base in deep America, attracting former Democratic outsiders and trying to make some moves outside the box.
Keeping the Blue Wall: the Democratic Campaign Strategy.
The flop at Joe Biden's presidential debate, which has shown its cognitive and physical limitations to the world, has catapulted vice president Kamala Harris to prominence., pushed by party bigwigs, in the impossibility of finding an alternative before the Democratic Convention.
The positive wave of the convention dragged on for about a month, but The "honeymoon" with voters would appear to be over And the battle with Trump remains to the last vote.
Kamala's Ferrari, a voting machine
Kamala Harris' campaign is distinguished by a well-structured field operation, targeted media appearances, and an articulated communication strategy.
Harris aims to mobilize a broad spectrum of voters who put Joe Biden in the White House in 2020, including moderates, independents, and so-called minorities: Latinos, African Americans, Asians.
At the heart of the democratic is the "ground game." A machine that includes more than 2,500 staff members spread across more than 350 offices in key states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. His campaign emphasized face-to-face interactions through door-to-door and community events, with the goal of building a network of relationships at the local level, Going so far as to knock on more than 600,000 doors In a single week.
This approach aims to consolidate the so-called "blue wall" or "Blue Wall" in the Rust Belt, where the campaign believes that personal involvement can inspire greater turnout among undecided voters or those less likely to vote.
In addition to door-to-door activity, the Harris campaign organized "town halls," community discussions and training events for its legion of volunteers., all aimed at fostering a deep sense of community involvement in his campaign, in a Area that is still going through a deep crisis of de-industrialization that led Trump to win in 2016.
Embedded in this strategy is rootedness in local organizations and the involvement of leaders in minority communities, who serve as trusted voices in their neighborhoods. Working closely with grassroots activists and "local influencers," Harris's campaign has sought to amplify her message and profile as a woman daughter of immigrants so that it resonates in specific ethno-social communities.
The choice of Tim Waltz, Minnesota's white governor and school teacher, counterbalances the investment in "minorities" and wants to counterbalance JD Vance, to contend for the Rust Belt, not to completely cede symbolic representation of this crucial belt to the Republicans.
All against Trump: appeal to moderates and independents
With an opposing candidate with such strong ideas, the Democratic campaign is targeting so-called moderates, independents and even those Republicans who may feel disconnected from the current MAGA version of the GOP leadership.
He boarded prominent conservative voices, such as the former representative at Congress Liz Cheney, daughter of the Bush-era vice president. In particular, Harris's message is shaped to appeal to college-educated women living in middle-class suburbia, a key demographic group in the balance.
Abortion, civil liberties and economic equity, have been the workhorses of his campaign after taking the baton from Joe Biden.
While launching rants against Trump in interviews with the media, she has tried to offer herself as a candidate who enhances bipartisanship and the Constructive dialogue with the other party, to try to attract voters who are tired of America's political polarization.
To override the recitation of its traditional electorate the campaign of Harris appealed to rural voters, traditionally inclined to vote for Republicans, talking about infrastructure investment, broadband access and support for agriculture.
From the polls, however, the cleavage now classic between urban and rural America, which can be seen plastically from the electoral map in which there are (very populous) Democratic islands surrounded by a Republican red tide.
Media and Digital: youth and minorities
If middle America voters find it difficult to appeal, with the university subculture very much aligned with the democratic platform, young people are a more congenial audience.
Kamala appeared in the media appealing directly to them, appearing on non-political podcasts such as "Call Her Daddy" and "All the Smoke," with the idea of engaging an audience uninterested in politics but focused on social issues and personal freedoms.
This outreach activity, combined with a massive Digital advertising strategy on platforms such as Instagram, TikTok and YouTube, aims to resonate with young voters who prioritize "inclusiveness."
Democracy, social justice and economic opportunity, are the issues with which it seeks to cross-reference with youth audiences, collaborating with social media personalities who have a strong following.
In the age of AI, Harris's campaign could only use theData analysis to target specific segments of voters with messages tailor-made. By analyzing social media trends, polling data, and other metrics, campaigns are now able to create commercials that speak directly to the concerns of different groups of voters, From climate change for young environmentalists to student debt relief for recent graduates.
Fiery militants and new voters: Trump's strategy
The campaign of Trump, after having Quickly crushed opponents in Republican primary, moved along a groove already adopted in previous rounds, with a few variations.
The miraculous failure of Butler's bomber, who came very close to killing him, and the second attempt on the golf course inflamed the base and created an almost messianic aura which has been exploited in rallies to try to strike a chord with the religious electorate.
The underlying message remains the same: economic and border security and America First.
"Trump Force 47"
Also the campaign of Trump tried to create a "ground game" more structured, which in past rounds was prerogative of the Democrats.
From Steve Bannon's Precint Strategy at Trump Force 47, there has been a proliferation of initiatives to engage potential voters and reward them for achieving specific goals.
The "Trump Force 47" program remains a strategy focused on his base, aiming to maximize turnout among his supporters, particularly Expanding outreach to young conservative men..
This peer-led approach not only helps to activate "low propensity" voters, but it also deepens the loyalty and enthusiasm of Trump supporters, making them active participants in his reelection effort.
Also the choice of JD Vance, author of "Hillibilly Eulogy", with a biography that personifies a very American story of redemption and speaks to deep America, is functional in reinforcing the connection to the white working class, his historic constituency.
Podcast and high energy
Trump and his deputy JD Vance have also held a media presence through social media, particularly X and Truth, and have appeared on podcasts like Joe Rogan. His rallies, meanwhile, provide an opportunity for direct voter engagement, emphasizing issues such as the'inflation, law & order, and national defense.
After a very successful debate against Joe Biden and a second against Kamala Harris, which was generally judged a loser: Trump has limited his television presence to a few appearances on Fox News, focusing on other forms of communication. A strategy that allowed his campaign to remain visible and relevant, without being present on cable news TV with more hostile coverage.
High-profile events, such as the rally at Madison Square Garden, exploit his personal brand as a successful Big Apple tycoon, sometimes go trespassing in traditionally Democratic areas so as to force the Democratic campaign to invest resources to secure states given for sure.
The large rallies, often held in key states and with hyperbolic language, have the dual purpose of infusing its supporters with energy, with Speeches addressing local issues and endorsements of prominent figures such as mayors in the area, police force unionists or other interest groups.
By bypassing the traditional media, Trump is able to control his message, avoid the critical framing of mainstream media and keep its base informed in real time.
Coupled with Elon Musk's shenanigans about X, the continuous barrage of posts, even at unlikely hours, of Trump himself, Allows you to respond quickly to news developments, ensuring that his perspective is among the first that his supporters encounter when significant events occur, and the same gaffes that emerge occasionally give his supporters a sense of genuineness.
Economy and Immigration
With theeconomy as the main issue for 81% of voters, Trump's campaign focuses on the concerns of the middle class, highlighting the growth of inflation and the impact of "green" economic policies on household spending.
His message focuses on promises of growth and prosperity, validated by the economic records recorded by his previous administration before the pandemic (which Democrats attribute to Obama).
The question "Are you better off now or 4 years ago?" often resonates, evoking the nostalgia for his first term, extolled as a period of economic boom and international political stability, with no wars.
Tax cuts offset by import duties, legislative deregulation and energy independence based on the revival of fossil fuels are the three elements he proposes to voters concerned about the rising cost of living.
On immigration, Trump famously proposes a firm stance on border security, highlighting the dangers of illegal immigration, connecting it to the crime, at thedrug epidemic such as Fentanyl and at the economic competition For low-wage jobs.
Iconic since 2016 are his plans to complete the border wall "Build the Wall", increase funding for border patrol, and enforce stricter immigration policies, up to and including deportation to the countries of origin of illegal immigrants.
By presenting immigration as a national security issue, Trump not only reinforces his image as a strong leader, but Resonates with voters concerned about cultural and demographic changes too fast and especially sinking concerns about the wages of the poorer classes, gaining support even among Hispanics, Asians and, with lesser incidence, African American males.
Divergent paths toward Nov. 5
Both need the same things to win: bring sympathetic but unwilling voters to the polls and Winning in at least 3 states in the Midwest or Sun Belt.
Kamala Harris can count on the support of a formidable territorial electoral machine, a personal profile, and issues that strongly involve suburban women and some minorities but is much less "appealing" than Joe Biden in the Midwest.
Trump, on the other hand, with his pyrotechnic language and stances continues to alienate liberal "Coastal America" but has expanded his acceptance among a segment of minorities and independents with the endorsement of former Dems Kennedy Jr and Tulsi Gabbard.
The U.S. elections are very long, between vote-by-mail and early voting, Nov. 5 and a battle that is also expected to be long on the legal side in case of recounts or reports of fraud.
Policies at the substantive level are not so distant from what may be emerging on the surface, particularly on the pivotal dossier of the 21st century: the relationship with China.
The bitterness of the past decade leaves as a dowry a superpower so deeply polarized that Will make it very difficult for the next president, whoever he may be, to speak to the Other America.
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