The round held in was the most divisive election in Brazil since the return of democracy . Ignazio Lula da Silva won, but by a very narrow margin, around 1.5 percent, which has allowed the conservative opposition to launch accusations of electoral fraud and the more extreme bangs to launch an assault on the presidential palace in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023.
Regardless of the contentions, Lula inaugurates his third administration, with far more improbable tasks than when he was first president 20 years, facing enormous economic and social challenges in a deeply polarized nation.
In terms of foreign policy, Brazil, which had affinities with Trumpian America under Bolsonaro but had more difficult relations with the new administration will probably return to dialogue with the United States, the European Union, China, and other Latin American countries, playing the role of a multilateral actor in a constantly shifting geopolitical environment.
Foreign policy, however, remains in the background of a far more complex and difficult domestic mosaic.
The lulist economy in a fragmented coalition
The big challenge for Lula will be economic policy because to win had to assemble a grand coalition ranging from the environmentalist left to centrist liberals. He will now have to try to create an economic policy that can be accepted across the political spectrum, and it will be a challenge to create committees in the legislative chambers and negotiate with a Congress where he has a precarious majority.
Bolsonaro has sought to address Brazil's economic problems by introducing reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy, such as through reform of the pension system.
The situation worsened considerably during the pandemic, which set the country, which was already experiencing economic difficulties, back a decade. The nightmare of hunger has returned, a tragedy thought to be a thing of Brazil's past, and whole segments of the population suddenly found themselves in a very vulnerable economic and social situation.
There are millions of people who voted for Lula and expect a quick response, but at the same time, the expansive economic response to deal with the pandemic coupled with the global rise in interest rates will bring out the fiscal problems of the Greenlandic state.
It will therefore be necessary to manage the difficult contrast between the enormous expectations of the Brazilian people and the day-to-day challenge of running the government with an uncohesive and risky majority.
Despite the rebound in growth for this year, the quality of life for many Brazilians has declined. In 2022 inflation exceeded 10%, and between 2012 and 2021 the economy grew by an average of only 0.15% annually, a stagnation that threatens to become stagflation.
In addition, Brazil's international position probably Will influence nature and origin of foreign investment, which are an important component of development in Latin America.
The rebirth of the Cerrado
Brazil, however, is a diverse continent. In some areas the picture is much rosier. From its inception Brazil has been a coastal nation, where the cities and states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo dominated, while its vast interior was neglected economically and relegated to political irrelevance.
The Great agribusiness development is revolutionizing the internal balance of the Oroverde colossus: states in the country's heartland, such as Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Tocantins, and Minas Gerais, are now booming. This rural Brazil feeds a growing slice of the world's population and since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, has become the world's most important food producer.
Over the past decade, agribusiness has grown to account for 27% of GDP. The area known as the Cerrado, the vast pre-Amazon tropical savanna region rich in biodiversity, has been radically transformed by agricultural mechanization over the past 50 years.
While its acidic soils have been transformed among the most productive in the world, increased logging to favor crops and livestock has alarmed ecologists both at home and abroad.
In these areas, the breadbasket of Brazil, Bolsonaro remains an icon. The difference between Bolsonaro and the other candidates is that he did not address that audience only by asking for their votes or pandering to their political demands, but Has adopted the cultural style of the Brazilian "frontier".
The essence of the "cerrado" is the South American version of the Wild West, to the sound of a local country music called sertanejo that speaks of effort and suffering on the frontier, plaid shirts and cowboy boots.
The people of these regions consider Bolsonaro one of their own, so much so that he often attends events celebrating local culture and is triumphantly welcomed.
The frontier is not just folklore, but the economic and cultural renaissance of the agrarian states has spurred a building boom, which has led to a doubling of the population of the state capital, Goiania, over the past 40 years, making it a sprawling metropolis of 1.5 million.
States like Goiás or Mato Grosso are one reason why foreign direct investment has risen to nearly 40 billion of dollars in the first five months of this year, the largest inflow since 2011.
For this reason Federal lawmakers representing agricultural regions are among the closest allies of the president. Support for Bolsonaro is not limited to the agribusiness bubble. Pre-election polls had indicated an easy result for Lula, returning from a long period of political disqualification, but they were wrong in both the first round and the second, while support for Bolsonaro has gone under the radar.
The rising wave of evangelicals
The reason is that traditional pollsters failed to capture support for Bolsonaro, who organized himself through WhatsApp groups and other social media, while he was absent from ordinary political channels such as newspapers or radio stations, which tended to be unfavorable to the incumbent president.
Bolsonaro also represents the religious values of conservative Catholics and evangelicals who fear leftist intervention on ethical issues related to religious prescriptions such as homosexuality or abortion. Many Brazilians share his conservative values and echo his belief in God and family.
It is the deep Brazil of evangelical Christianity, a religion that has come from America and is exploding in popularity and consequently in political influence, set to overtake Catholics by the end of this decade. Although Bolsonaro is officially Catholic, his wife is a well-known evangelical, and he In 2016 he was baptized by an evangelical pastor.
Winning the vote of this community has been a trump card for Bolsonaro, as, moreover, it was for Donald Trump in the United States. 10 or 15 years ago the percentage was around 18-20% and today they are around 30%, but growing very fast.
Bolsonaro's secret was having the ability to organize these sensitivities into a political movement, which has never happened before, even of conservative inspiration. Then again, polls reveal that more than half the population opposes abortion and drug legalization, so in reality Bolsonaro is in assonance with the deep spirit of the country.
More segments of the population such as truck drivers, the military, or the iconic bikers, are sensitive to his personal history and his securitarian and libertarian message, a symptom of a widespread conservatism that is now concentrated not only in the Italian-Brazilian middle class of Rio and São Paulo, but embraces the entire country.
The poor man's Lula
As opposed to Bolsonaro, Lula has an apt biography to resonate with the more modest strata of the population. He was born in a very poor region of Brazil, immigrated to São Paulo to work in the auto industry, and thanks to the labor movement became president for two terms, between 2003 and 2010. He was later implicated in the Lava Jato scandal, or car wash corruption scandal, and served time in prison. His convictions were later overturned by the Supreme Court, while other criminal cases were dismissed or expired due to time limits.
During the campaign, Lula managed to connect with millions of voters who were looking for a change from the Bolsonaro years, but most importantly, he maintained the historical base of the Brazilian left, in the poorest regions of the country and in many large coastal cities.
Despite unemployment falling to 9% at the end of 2022, rising inflation has led many Brazilians to return to relying on government subsidies, introduced by Lula, during his first terms in office.
The 30% of the population lives on less than $95 per month and 10 million more Brazilians have fallen into poverty since 2019. Wealth is predominantly in the hands of the new elites, and this affects the representativeness of minorities, who have turned to Lula in search of a voice for their demands.
Brazil is destined for a troubled path. The parts in the play have reversed: now while the interior speaks of progress and development, the coast has to deal with poverty and deep inequality, but in a scenario where cultural polarization has become political polarization.
Lula will have to lead not one, but several Brazils.
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