Libya between Tripoli and Tobruk
There are several regions on Earth characterized by a high level of instability, but few can compete with Libya. It has gone in little more than a decade from being a solid autocratic state to being a fragmented, civil war-torn territory, Of pre-2011 Libya, all that remains are the ruins.
Now, what was once a state body capable of bringing together and bringing together all the tribes that make up its population, culture and history has given way to a Heterogeneous mix of more or less influential autonomous entities. And although there are even two governments at the moment, the situation is much more complicated.
I Tripoli and Tobruk governments - respectively headed by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and General Khalifa Haftar - not only are they extremely weak and fragmentary, but they are almost unable to act without the constant support of foreign powers.
This is why it is easy to understand why Libya today has become a land of everyone and no one, where local militias, foreign governments and powerful criminal organizations collide and meet, in a complex melting pot of billion-dollar interests and business. There are a wide variety of reasons for this. As is easy to guess, in the first place there is the Great challenge for control and supply of raw materials, of which Libya has immense reserves.
Gas and oil, in this case, represent the spearhead of the riches hidden among the desert sands.
Resources that, by the way, lie at the heart of the agreement between East and West-which has provided feeble stability to the area over the past two years-and are, in any case, a major source of economic revenue, now of absolute importance for the survival of the population. Beyond that, of course, there is the interest of foreign powers in new strategic challenges.
The winners of the Libyan chaos: Russia and Turkey
The continuing chaos in Libya has left immense power vacuums that, in short order, have attracted the interest of numerous regional players. In brief, Turkey and Russia made the most of the situation, going to occupy all those spaces that had opened up. The Turks, in particular, concentrated, and still concentrate, their interests in the western sector controlled by Tripoli.
In the space of a few years, in fact, they were able to exert a decisive presence-particularly through military aid and numerous additional agreements-and were able to reestablish a security perimeter around the capital (at least as internationally recognized). In this way, not only Have been able to place means and men on the North African shore. the Mediterranean, but they also succeeded in thwarting growing Russian aspirations in the country.
It is no coincidence, in fact, that the intervention of the fearsome Bayraktar TB2 drones proved to be the turning point in the battle of Tripoli, forcing Haftar's units and Wagner's units to fall back to safer positions, this time at the height of Sirte. In this way, the Russian dream of establishing a strong and decisive presence on North African soil was interrupted, forcing Moscow to focus its interests only in theeastern area of Libya where, in each case, there is still the influence of other nations.
Arab interests
In this case, however, these are nations belonging to the Arab League: Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. The former, as a neighboring nation, has numerous strategic and energy interests in the country.
The latter, on the other hand, has skillfully exploited the crisis of recent years to exert increasing influence on North African dynamics. As for the Egyptian interests, the energy discourse is always of paramount importance. Indeed, al-Sisi's government has not only struggled to digest-along with Greece, Cyprus and other Mediterranean nations. Ankara's 2019 agreement with Tripoli, but also realized the opportunity offered by Libya as an export market.
As a major producer of electricity, in fact, Cairo sees battered Libya as a major foreign outlet for its energy supplies In present and future times.
But it is precisely the future that attracts, in particular, the attention of Egypt, which plans to use the nation's billion-dollar reconstruction to its advantage, a fact exclusively possible following numerous peace agreements between the parties and the achievement of a good level of stability. All interests being equal, at least as far as the talk about the inviting reconstruction, there are the United Arab Emirates who, after initially taking a pro-Haftar stance, have been actively engaged in the lengthy political dialogues between the two capitals.
The mediation work ultimately proved effective, perhaps laying the foundation for what could be, within a few decades, the new Libya.
Security and terrorism
Probably failing to plan for, the day after, what I think was the right thing to do, in intervening in Libya.
Another major concern for neighboring Arab nations, moreover, is the area of security. Because of the wide availability of armaments and explosives of all types present in the country, Libya is a major source of concern for its Egyptian and Tunisian neighbors.
In fact, according to Egyptian intelligence reports, most of the weapons used by terrorist groups in the Sinai Peninsula came from Libya itself. Getting them into the wrong hands, in this case, were the numerous criminal groups present within the borders of the former Italian colony, Who currently control whole swathes of territory.
The same situation, then, occurred in Tunisia, albeit with a smaller intensity. The continued escalation of tensions and economic uncertainty have seriously alarmed the government in Tunis, which is now forced to deploy more and more resources to control its borders. Libyan criminal groups, however, are not only involved in arms trafficking.
Another immense source of income here is human trafficking, which has now endemically plagued much of the territory since the fall of Qaddafi.
Migration: Italy at the forefront
This complex dynamic, combining the desperation of individuals with larger interests, has brought serious upheaval both in the North African region and in Europe itself. On the southern shore of the Mediterranean, the phenomenon has generated chaos and uncertainty on the one hand in regions traversed by human trafficking and major embarkation areas.
On the European continent, however, the phenomenon has caused serious internal tensions in the countries of arrival (see Greece, Italy and "Balkan trafficking" nations) and international. Due to the high flows of illegal immigration and the European difficulty in finding a unified solution on the management and countering of human beings, relations between friendly and neighboring nations have often turned sour, if not borderline confrontational, precisely because of the inability to find a common management to the phenomenon.
In addition, theenormous cost that this immense phenomenon has for European nations, especially when it comes to economic resources, day-to-day commitment and repercussions on the security arena. For this reason, it is very easy to understand why Libyan events and dynamics are of paramount importance to a large group of European nations.
Italy is on the front lines, being linked by immense energy, strategic and economic interests. The same could eventually be said for France, which has long intervened in internal dynamics since the first armed clashes in 2011.
An uncertain fate
In the background, but still for interests in the strategic and energy fields, there is Greece That although it is located some distance from the Arab country, Was forced to take an interest to the matter for Countering the Mediterranean expansionist aims of that Turkish neighbor which, often, has adopted confrontational policies toward Athens.
Of course, in addition to the major players mentioned in this analysis, North African affairs closely affect a larger number of nations belonging to the sub-Saharan regions and the rest of the Arab world, as well as, indirectly, involve all of the rest of North Central Europe, including Britain.
Net of this, it is easy to see what Libya's fate may be within the next few decades. Apparent peace, occasionally interspersed with armed clashes between opposing militias and groups, turns out to be an essential condition for the pursuit of the strategic interests of numerous neighboring and neighboring countries.
On the other hand, however, the reactivation of a large-scale conflict between the east and west of the country would be a strategic advantage for those powers that, on the contrary, wish to increase their influence in the area.
For this reason, it is almost impossible, at the moment, to reach a definite and certain conclusion. The road to a prosperous and peaceful future, in fact, still promises to be very long and winding, and, what will dominate will be the major international movements, which are now clearly destined to change the world balance we have always known. Now, then, all that remains is to wait.
Andrea De Poli
Class of 1996, he graduated in 2020 with a degree in linguistic sciences from the Catholic University of the
Sacro Cuore in Milan, later perfecting his studies in Strategic Affairs at LUISS in Rome.
He previously worked for the family business group, while now serving as an analyst for Menerva. He has always devoted part of his spare time to the study of major armed, social and political conflicts of the 20th century and the present day. Over the years, he has also devoted special attention to the entire social, political and economic context of the Middle East, Ukraine and North Africa. In 2021, he published "Hezbollah: History, Organization
and doctrine of the Party of God."
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